数 MATH OF LUCK

Tairyō, priced: 29% from the reels, 67% from one spin in 386

Illustration for “Tairyō, priced: 29% from the reels, 67% from one spin in 386”
Tairyō’s base game returns 29.41% of the stake from line wins — computed exactly from the reel strips — and nothing else. The other two-thirds comes from free spins, which start when all three of reels 2–4 show a scatter: 1 spin in 385.8. A free-spin round is worth about ×258 the bet on average, so the total return is about 96.2–96.4%, above the 95.2% the engine’s own comment records. The round is lopsided: the middle one pays ×56, 21% pay under ×10, 4.6% pay ×1,000 or more and 0.2% hit the ×2,100 cap. In 77% of 100-spin sessions the feature never comes, and those sessions return about 29%. Buying the round costs 270× for about 258× of value (about 95.5%), and the super buy 720× for about 686× (95.3%) — slightly worse than earning it.
BETKYO RESEARCHPUBLISHED 2026-09-28UPDATED 2026-09-288 MIN READ

Two games in one

Tairyō is a 5×3, ten-line fishing slot in the style of the collector games: in free spins, a wild fisherman collects the cash values printed on every fish on screen. Designing Tairyō read its paytable. This article prices it, and the first thing the price shows is that the slot is really two games sharing a screen. One is the base game, which you play on almost every spin. The other is the free-spin round, which pays most of the money.

ENGINE-VERIFIEDTairyoEngine.kt (house service) and slot/slotEngine.ts (client) carry the same tables. Base reels: five strips of 50 stops, no wilds, scatters only on reels 2, 3 and 4 (three, two and two of them), spaced so a 3-row window never shows two; a reel stops at one uniform index and shows three consecutive symbols. Lines pay left to right on 10 fixed lines in thousandths of the total bet: bobber 0.05/0.5/2/20 for 2–5 of a kind, rod 0.3/1.5/10, dragonfly and tackle box 0.2/1/5, fish 0.1/0.5/2, card ranks 0.05/0.25/1 for 3–5. Three scatters start 10 free spins. In free spins a single 50-stop strip with one wild spins on every reel; each fish carries a cash value drawn from 2, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 50 or 2,000 times the bet (weights 3,950 / 1,600 / 600 / 250 / 100 / 30 / 15 / 1); every wild collects the sum of those values; every three wilds collected add 10 spins and step the collection multiplier ×2, ×3, ×10; the round is capped at 2,100× the bet.

The base game: 29.41%

Each reel stops at one of 50 positions with equal chance and the five reels are independent, so the expected pay of a line is a short exact sum over the strips, and every line has the same one. Ten lines give the base game’s return.

Where the base game’s 29.41% comes from
SYMBOLPAYS 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 OF A KINDSHARE OF THE STAKE
Bobber×0.05 / ×0.5 / ×2 / ×2013.76%
Rod— / ×0.3 / ×1.5 / ×107.04%
Dragonfly— / ×0.2 / ×1 / ×54.16%
Tackle box— / ×0.2 / ×1 / ×54.16%
Fish— / ×0.1 / ×0.5 / ×20.29%
A, K, Q, J, 10— / ×0.05 / ×0.25 / ×10.00%
All base line wins29.41%

Exact over the 50-stop strips: ten lines × one line’s expected pay. A given line pays on 6.57% of spins; about 42.8% of spins pay something on at least one line (a million-spin replay). The card ranks almost never appear on the base strips, so they carry no measurable return there.

A base game that returns 29 cents on the dollar is not a mistake; it is the shape of the product. It pays often enough to keep the screen busy — four spins in ten show a line win, mostly small ones — while almost all of the money waits behind the scatters.

One spin in 386

Free spins need a scatter visible on each of reels 2, 3 and 4. Reel 2 carries three scatters on its 50 stops and each is visible from three stopping positions, so it shows one 18% of the time; reels 3 and 4 carry two each, 12%. The trigger is the product: 0.18 × 0.12 × 0.12 = 0.2592%, one spin in 385.8. No reel can show two scatters at once and the other reels carry none, so three is also the only count possible — four or five scatters never happen.

Waiting for the feature
SPINS PLAYEDCHANCE OF NO FREE SPINS
10077.1%
30045.9%
1,0007.5%

(1 − 0.002592) raised to the number of spins. A session without the feature returns about the base game’s 29%.

That table is the most useful fact about the game. Three sessions in four of 100 spins never see the part of the slot that pays two-thirds of its return, and those sessions lose about 71% of what they stake. The 96% is real, but it is an average over a feature most short sessions do not reach.

What the round is worth

Free-spin rounds, 300,000 replayed per kind
REGULAR ROUNDSUPER ROUND (BUY ONLY)
Average payout×257.5×685.9
Middle round×56×166
Pays under ×1020.7%10.5%
Pays ×1,000 or more4.6%32.3%
Reaches the ×2,100 cap0.21%14.6%
At least one retrigger58.5%57.8%
Average spins played24.122.5

Replay of the engine’s round rules with the published fish-value weights; standard error of the regular average about ±0.6×. The engine’s own cross-checked figures are ×258.5 and ×687.5. The super round draws fish values from a heavier table (a ×2,000 fish is 1 in 191 instead of 1 in 6,546).

The average round is worth ×258, but the typical one is worth ×56: the mean is carried by rounds in which a high-value fish meets a wild late in the ladder, when collection is multiplied by ten. That is why the return figure and the experience diverge so sharply. Multiplying the trigger rate by the round’s value gives the feature’s share of the return: 0.2592% × 257.5 ≈ 66.7% of the stake, for a total of about 96.2%, or 96.4% with the engine’s ×258.5.

The engine’s header comment records a base-game return of 95.2% from a ten-million-spin simulation. The exact base line pays plus the round’s value put it about a point higher; with a round standard deviation of roughly ×350 arriving once in 386 spins, ten million spins leave a simulation about ±0.7 points from the true figure. The difference favours the player.

Buying the feature

Tairyō sells the round directly: 270 times the bet for a regular round, 720 times for a super round with the richer fish table. The prices were set against the round’s measured value, and they return about 95.5% (270× for ×257.5–258.5) and 95.3% (720× for ×685.9–687.5). Both are a little below the roughly 96.2% the game returns when the round is earned by spinning.

The buy also compresses the variance into one decision. A regular buy returns its 270× price or more in 33.8% of rounds; the super buy returns its 720× in 36.3%. Two buys in three lose money, a few win large, and the average sits a few points below the price — the same shape as the base game’s long wait, delivered in one click. Risk of ruin and the machine zone are the two articles to read before doing that repeatedly.

Checking a spin

  1. Take the revealed server seed, your client seed and the nonce from the round’s fairness panel.
  2. For each draw i compute HMAC-SHA256 keyed by the server seed over “clientSeed-nonce-i”, read the first 13 hex digits as an integer d, and take floor(d × n ÷ 2⁵²) for a choice among n.
  3. A base spin uses draws 0–4, one reel stop each (n = 50). If it triggers, the free-spin round continues the same draw sequence: five reel stops per spin, then one draw per fish for its value, then the extra draws the single-wild bonus uses.

The engine does the arithmetic in integers so a verifier in a browser can match it bit for bit. Replaying a spin proves the stops were fixed before you pressed the button; the return in this article is a property of the strips and tables, which is why it has to be computed rather than replayed.

FAQ

What is the RTP of the Tairyō slot?

About 96.2–96.4%: 29.41% exactly from base-game line wins, plus free spins that trigger once in 385.8 spins and pay about ×258 on average. The engine’s comment records a simulated 95.2%, about a point lower.

How often do Tairyō free spins trigger?

On 0.2592% of spins, one in 385.8. It needs a scatter on each of reels 2, 3 and 4, shown 18%, 12% and 12% of the time. Four or five scatters cannot occur.

How much do Tairyō free spins pay?

About ×258 the bet on average, but ×56 in the middle case. About 21% of rounds pay under ×10, 4.6% pay ×1,000 or more and 0.2% reach the ×2,100 cap.

Is buying the Tairyō bonus worth it?

It returns about 95.5% (regular, 270×) or 95.3% (super, 720×), slightly less than the roughly 96.2% the game returns when the round is triggered by spinning. Two buys in three pay back less than their price.

Why does Tairyō lose so fast between features?

The base game returns 29.41% on its own. Two-thirds of the return sits in the free-spin round, so a 100-spin session without the feature — 77% of them — keeps about 29% of its stakes.

What does the ×10 multiplier apply to?

Only to the fish values the wilds collect, from the ninth collected wild onward. Line wins in free spins are paid at face value.

SOURCES & REFERENCES
  • Betkyo engine source, house service: TairyoEngine.kt — BASE_STRIPS, FS_STRIP, PAYTABLE, PAYLINES, MONEY_WEIGHTS and SUPER_MONEY_WEIGHTS, the 3/6/9-wild retrigger ladder with multipliers 1/2/3/10, MAX_WIN_MULT1000, the integer intBelow() draw; TairyoConstants (buy prices 270× and 720×); client mirror slot/slotEngine.ts
  • Exact calculation written for this article: one line’s expected pay over the five 50-stop strips ×10 lines; scatter visibility per reel and the trigger product; a million-spin replay of the base game (29.35% vs 29.41% exact)
  • Replay written for this article: 300,000 regular and 300,000 super free-spin rounds under the engine’s rules (averages ×257.5 and ×685.9, against the engine’s cross-checked ×258.5 and ×687.5)
THE GAMES IN THIS ARTICLE
Betkyo Research — written by the team that builds these games. Every probability quoted in the Journal is derived from our engine source or a cited reference, never copied from another site. Figures are re-checked whenever the engines change.

18+ · PLAY RESPONSIBLY · THE JOURNAL IS EDITORIAL CONTENT, NOT BETTING ADVICE