MATH OF LUCK

Glossary: casino math and provably fair terms, defined in two sentences each

Illustration for “Glossary: casino math and provably fair terms”
The words that do the work in gambling mathematics are few. Return to player (RTP) is the average share of stakes a game pays back; the house edge is one minus that. Volatility is how far individual results spread around the average, and it is the thing a “risk level” changes when the return does not. Provably fair is a commitment scheme: the house publishes a hash of its server seed before play, you supply a client seed, a nonce counts rounds and a cursor counts draws within a round, and after the seed is revealed every result can be recomputed. Variance, expected value, risk of ruin and the Kelly criterion describe what happens to a bankroll over many rounds. The rest of this page defines each of these and the terms around them, with a link to where the Journal uses the number.
BETKYO RESEARCHPUBLISHED 2026-09-12UPDATED 2026-09-1210 MIN READ

Price and return

Terms that describe what a game costs
TERMDEFINITIONWHERE THE JOURNAL USES IT
Return to player (RTP)The average fraction of every stake a game pays back over the long run, computed from its rules and payouts. A 97.22% return means the house keeps 2.78 of every 100 units staked, on average.Sic Bo, every box priced
House edgeOne minus the return: the share of stakes the house keeps on average. It is a property of the game, not of the player’s luck or history.Sic Bo, roulette keys
Expected value (EV)The probability-weighted average of all outcomes of a bet. A negative expected value means the bet loses money on average, whatever any single result does.Kelly criterion
Total-return multiplierA payout expressed as stake-back-plus-win, so ×2 on an even-money bet returns the stake and an equal win. Most tables on this site use this convention.Roulette keys, Sic Bo
PaytableThe published mapping from outcome to payout. On this site paytables are read from engine source and the return is computed cell by cell rather than quoted.Keno risk levels, Tairyō
Hit rateThe share of rounds that pay anything at all. It is independent of return: a game can pay often and little or rarely and much at the same price.Bingo, Fukubukuro
VolatilityHow widely individual results spread around the average, usually measured as the standard deviation of the payout in stakes. A “risk level” changes volatility while leaving return almost untouched.Keno risk levels
VarianceThe square of the standard deviation; the technical measure behind volatility. Higher variance means longer swings for the same expected value.Risk of ruin

Bankroll

Terms that describe what happens to money over many rounds
TERMDEFINITIONWHERE THE JOURNAL USES IT
Risk of ruinThe probability that a bankroll reaches zero before a target, given the bet size and the game. With a negative edge and no stopping rule it is one.Risk of ruin, Archie Karas
Gambler’s ruinThe theorem behind risk of ruin: a finite bankroll against an opponent with more money and any edge loses everything with probability one, given enough rounds.Archie Karas
Kelly criterionA bet-sizing formula that maximises long-run growth: stake the fraction of bankroll equal to edge divided by odds. With a negative edge it returns zero.Kelly criterion
Stopping ruleA decision, made before play, about when a session ends: a loss limit, a win target or a time. It is the only lever that changes the chance of ruin without changing the game.Responsible play toolkit
BankrollThe money set aside for play, as distinct from money for anything else. Bet size is meaningful only as a fraction of it.Risk of ruin
Gambler’s fallacyThe belief that a run of one outcome makes the opposite outcome due. On independent events the next result carries no memory of the last.Gambler’s fallacy, Monte Carlo 1913
Hot handThe belief that a run of successes makes the next success more likely. Real in some skill processes; impossible on a seeded game, where rounds share nothing.The hot hand
House money effectThe tendency to bet more freely with money recently won, as if it were not yet yours. The wallet keeps one balance; the effect lives in the player.The house money effect

Provably fair

Terms in the commitment scheme this site uses
TERMDEFINITIONWHERE THE JOURNAL USES IT
Provably fairA scheme in which the house commits to its randomness before play and reveals it after, so any round can be recomputed by the player. It proves the randomness was fixed and honest; it does not remove the house edge.What a hash commitment proves
Server seedThe house’s secret random string for a period of play. Its hash is shown before you bet; the seed itself is revealed when the pair is retired.Verify a casino round
Client seedA string you can set yourself, mixed into every round. It cannot change your odds; it guarantees the house could not have chosen a server seed to fit your input.Illusion of control
Hash commitmentPublishing the SHA-256 fingerprint of a secret so it can be checked later. Two different seeds cannot share a fingerprint, so the revealed seed must be the committed one.What a hash commitment proves
HMAC-SHA256A keyed hash: the server seed is the key and the message names the round. The output is the round’s raw randomness, identical for anyone with the same inputs.Verify a casino round
NonceA counter that goes up by one with every bet across all games on the site, so no two rounds share inputs.What the cursor counts
CursorA counter inside a round: cursor 0 is the first random number the game needs, cursor 1 the second. A bingo round reads 63; roulette reads one.What the cursor counts
Seed pairThe server seed and client seed in force together. A pair is “rotated” when the server seed is revealed and a new one committed.Illusion of control
VerifierThe code, in your browser, that recomputes a round from the revealed inputs. On this site it shares its functions with the demo engine, so the two cannot drift.One rounding, not many
Uniform numberThe value between 0 and 1 that a hash is turned into before a game maps it to a pocket, card or item. How the bytes become that number must match the server bit for bit.One rounding, not many
Randomness beaconA public source of random numbers, such as drand, published on a schedule and verifiable by anyone. An alternative to a house-held seed for some games.Inside drand
VRFA verifiable random function: a random output with a proof that it was computed correctly from a known input. One of four ways to prove a random number.Four ways to prove a random number

Games and crypto

Terms specific to games on this site, and to paying with crypto
TERMDEFINITIONWHERE THE JOURNAL USES IT
Infinite shoeA card game in which every card is an independent draw from a full deck, so the same card can appear twice and removal never changes the odds. Counting has nothing to count.Dealer bust odds, MIT team
NaturalA two-card 21 in blackjack. Paid 3:2 here; the 6:5 alternative costs about 1.42% of every stake.3:2 or 6:5
Sector targetingPredicting where a physical roulette ball will land from its speed and the wheel’s, before betting closes. Impossible on a hashed wheel, which has no ball in motion.The Ritz laser scanner
Wheel biasA physical roulette wheel whose pockets are not equally likely, found by recording thousands of spins. A defect, not a strategy.Wheel bias
ConfirmationA block added to a blockchain on top of the one holding your transaction. Each one makes reversal harder; six is the customary threshold for value at rest.What a confirmation is
Network feeThe price a blockchain charges to include a transaction, set by size or computation, not by amount. It is why dust exists and why withdrawals have minimums.Crypto fees, Dust
DustA balance too small to move because the network fee would consume it. Not lost; it can be staked or topped up.Dust
Destination tagA second identifier some coins require alongside the address, naming the recipient inside a shared wallet. Without it the funds arrive at the address but not at you.What the withdraw window checks
Definitions are written for this site’s engines and may differ in detail from other operators’ usage. Every game figure quoted on the linked pages is read from engine source; this page carries no figures of its own.
FAQ

What is the difference between RTP and house edge?

They are the same number from two sides. RTP is the share of stakes paid back on average; the house edge is one minus RTP. A 97.3% RTP is a 2.7% house edge.

What does provably fair actually prove?

That the house committed to its randomness before you bet, that the revealed seed is the committed one, and that every result follows from the seed pair and round number. It does not prove the game has no house edge.

What is the difference between a nonce and a cursor?

The nonce counts rounds across the whole site; the cursor counts random draws inside one round. Together with the seed pair they identify every number the engine produces.

What is volatility in a casino game?

How widely results spread around the average, usually the standard deviation of the payout in stakes. Risk levels change volatility while leaving the return almost unchanged.

What is risk of ruin?

The probability a bankroll hits zero before a target. It depends on bet size relative to bankroll and on variance; with a negative edge and no stopping rule it is one.

SOURCES & REFERENCES
  • The Betkyo Journal articles linked in each row, all of which read their figures from engine source
THE GAMES IN THIS ARTICLE
Betkyo Research — written by the team that builds these games. Every probability quoted in the Journal is derived from our engine source or a cited reference, never copied from another site. Figures are re-checked whenever the engines change.

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